Weather Update 5:00 AM Today 25 August 2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 5
Tropical Storm #GoringPH (SAOLA)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 25 August 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
GORING SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
•Location of Center (4:00 AM)
The center of Tropical Storm GORING was estimated based on all available data at 220 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes (19.9°N, 124.0°E)
Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 90 km/h, and central pressure of 998 hPa
•Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 160 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.1 (Wind threat: Strong winds)
Batanes, the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is., Camiguin Is.), the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca), and the northeastern portion of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Forecast accumulated rainfall for today
• 50-100 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tomorrow
• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands, and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela
Forecast accumulated rainfall for Sunday
• 50-100 mm: The northern portion of Aurora and the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
The Southwest Monsoon will be enhanced by GORING and bring occasional rains over the western portions of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon beginning tomorrow, and over the western portion of Visayas beginning on Sunday. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #1 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted.
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
• Tomorrow: Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Dinagat Islands, and most of MIMAROPA and Visayas
• Sunday: Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Coastal Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters of Batanes, Babuyan, and the northern coast of mainland Cagayan due to strong winds associated with GORING which may cause sea travel to be risky for certain types or tonnage of vessels. Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these areas (e.g., suspension of sea travel). For more information, refer to Coastal Gale Warning #1 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• GORING is forecast to move south southwestward or southward over the waters east of Northern Luzon until tomorrow afternoon, then turn southeastward for the rest of tomorrow through Sunday afternoon. Afterwards, the tropical cyclone will loop northward before turning to the northwest on Tuesday towards Luzon Strait. For the most of the forecast period, GORING is forecast to move slowly.
• Due to highly favorable environment, GORING is forecast to rapidly intensify and may reach typhoon category by tomorrow. It may reach its peak intensity on Sunday evening, after which it is forecast to maintain strength until the end of the forecast period. The potential for developing into a super typhoon is not ruled out.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.