Tropical Cyclone Bulletin NR. 13 Super Typhoon #Goringph (SAOLA)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 27 August 2023
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
The extreme eastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan) – –
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
The eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Peñablanca, Baggao, Gattaran, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Santa Ana), the eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, Ilagan City, Maconacon, Cabagan, Tumauini, San Pablo, Benito Soliven, San Mariano), and the extreme northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the eastern portion of Benguet (Bokod, Buguias, Kabayan, Mankayan), the eastern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Vintar, Carasi, Nueva Era, Banna, Marcos, Dingras, Solsona, Piddig, Dumalneg, Bangui), the northeastern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Bongabon, Gabaldon, Laur, Rizal), the northern and central portions of Aurora (Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis), Polillo Islands, and Calaguas Islands.
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Forecast accumulated rainfall for today
• Greater than 200 mm: The extreme eastern portion of Isabela.
• 100-200 mm: The eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
• 50-100 mm: Ilocos Region, Apayao, Abra, Benguet, the northern portion of Aurora, the eastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya, and rest of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tomorrow
• 50-100 mm: The eastern portions of Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan.
Forecast accumulated rainfall for Tuesday
• 100-200 mm: Batanes and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands
• 50-100 mm: The rest of Babuyan Islands and the northern portion of mainland Cagayan.
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by GORING will bring occasional or monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas over the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #5 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.3 is hoisted.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
• Today: Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and Camiguin.
• Tomorrow: Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and most of Zamboanga Peninsula.
• Tuesday: Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and most of Zamboanga Peninsula.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern and eastern coastal waters of Luzon. Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these areas (e.g., suspension of sea travel) due to hazardous sea condition. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #5 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• GORING is forecast to begin its loop over the Philippine Sea east of Cagayan-Isabela area today. The super typhoon will then turn northeastward and northward on Monday before shifting to a more northwestward movement on Tuesday. On the track forecast, GORING will make landfall over the southern portion of Taiwan on Wednesday evening or on Thursday early morning.
• GORING is forecast to remain at super typhoon category until it makes landfall over southern Taiwan. Land interaction with Taiwan’s rugged terrain will weaken the super typhoon. It is likely that GORING will emerge over the Taiwan Strait and exit the PAR region as a severe tropical storm or a minimal typhoon.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.